保险业发展与金融稳定:来自金砖国家的经验证据

Insurance Development and Financial Stability:Empirical Evidence Based on BRICS

目前,学术界鲜有关于发展中国家(尤其是中国)保险业发展是否影响金融稳定的经验研究。文章选取1999~2017年"金砖五国"的年度数据为样本,构建动态面板模型实证分析金砖国家保险业发展对金融稳定的影响。通过采用系统广义矩估计(SYS-GMM)与纠偏虚拟变量最小二乘法(LSDVC)对模型进行估计发现,"金砖五国"保险业发展与金融稳定显著相关,且二者间呈"倒U型"关系。通过测算保险业发展作用于金融稳定的风险临界值发现,当保险业资产占GDP比重达到所测算的阈值区间[47.96%,54.94%]时,金砖国家保险业发展可能对金融稳定产生不利影响。当前,金砖国家保险业发展与金融稳定之间的关系呈现出一定的分化,其中中国保险业发展尚不构成对金融稳定的负面威胁。最后,文章基于实证结果对中国保险业发展提出政策建议。

There has been rather limited research on whether the development of insurance industry in developing countries( especially in China) affects financial stability. This paper employs the annual data of BRICS countries during the period from 1999 to 2017 and constructs a dynamic panel model to empirically analyze the impact of the development of insurance industry on financial stability in BRICS countries. By using systematic generalized moment estimation( SYS-GMM) and least square method of rectifying dummy variable( LSDVC) successively,this paper finds that the development of insurance industry is significantly correlated with financial stability in BRICS countries,and the relationship between the two exhibits an " inverted U" shape. By measuring the risk threshold of the impact of the development of the insurance industry on financial stability,we further find that when the ratio of total insurance assets to GDP reaches to the estimated threshold range from 47. 42% to 52. 64%,the development of the insurance industry is likely to have a potentially adverse effect on financial stability in the BRICS. Overall,the relationship between industry development and financial stability shows obvious heterogeneity across the BRICS. In particular,the development of the insurance industry has not exerted a negative effect on financial stability in China during our sample. Finally,we put forward policy suggestions for the development of China’s insurance industry based on the above empirical results.