中国县域普惠金融的时空格局及影响因素

Spatial-temporal Pattern of Inclusive Finance and Its Influencing Factors in China’s Counties

县域普惠金融的均衡化发展是助推国家金融战略实施的重要环节。文章采用中国2007—2017年1972个县域数据,考察县域普惠金融发展的时空格局、演进趋势以及影响因素。结果表明:中国县域普惠金融整体水平较低,且呈稳步上升趋势;县域普惠金融发展水平存在显著且随时间扩大的地区差距,并具有显著空间正自相关,且高热点区主要集中在东部沿海和成渝城市群;县域普惠金融发展水平的演化趋势存在显著的"俱乐部趋同"和"马太效应",同时处于高水平县域的普惠金融发展具有最为显著的空间溢出效应;就全国而言,公共财政支出和固定资产投资与本地及周边地区普惠金融发展存在显著正向关系,而就地区(东中西)而言,各影响因素差异性明显。最后,依据实证结论得出相关政策启示。

The balanced development of inclusive finance at the county level is a vital link to promote the implementation of national financial strategies.Based on this,this paper uses the data of 1972 counties in China from 2007 to 2017 to examine the spatial-temporal pattern,evolution trend,and influencing factors of inclusive financial development in counties.The results show that:1)The overall level of inclusive finance in China’s counties is relatively low and presents a steady upward trend.2)The level of inclusive finance development in counties has significant and widening regional disparities over time,and has significant spatial positive autocorrelation,and the hot spots are mainly concentrated in the eastern coast and the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration.3)The evolutionary trend of the level of inclusive financial development in counties has significant"club convergence"and"Matthew effect",while inclusive financial development in high-level counties has the most effective spatial spillover effect.4)Nationally,public fiscal expenditure and fixed asset investment have a significant positive relationship with the development of inclusive finance in and around the region.As far as the region(the east,the middle,and the west)is concerned,the influencing factors are obviously different.Finally,based on empirical conclusions,relevant policy enlightenments are drawn.