基于偏离—份额模型的重庆市县域农村贫困人口收入增长分析

Income Growth of Rural Poor Residents at County Level in Chongqing:Based on the Shift-share Method

农村贫困人口收入增长稳定性是多个学科关注的热点问题。研究在分析重庆市农村贫困人口收入时空差异基础上,运用偏离—份额法,对2014—2019年重庆市涉及扶贫开发任务的33个区县农村贫困人口收入增长类型进行划分,厘清了不同区县农村贫困人口收入来源和增长动力,最后针对不同收入增长类型区县提出了差异化帮扶政策建议。结果表明:(1)研究时段内,重庆市县域农村贫困人口收入水平大幅度提升,且空间分布由非均衡逐步走向均衡,但在收入结构上仍存在明显空间差异;(2)工资性收入是重庆市农村贫困人口收入的主导来源,转移性收入取代家庭经营性收入成为农村贫困人口收入的第二重要来源,财产性收入占农村贫困人口收入比重持续处于较低水平;(3)重庆市农村贫困人口收入快速增长型和竞争优势推动型区县绝大部分为扶贫开发工作重点县,地区竞争优势是导致这类区县农村贫困人口收入快速增长的主要动力,而大多数扶贫开发工作非重点县属于收入增长滞后性和结构优势推动型,地区竞争劣势损失是造成这类区县农村贫困人口收入增长滞后的主要原因;(4)县域之间工资性收入和转移性收入的结构偏离分量和竞争偏离分量是导致各区县农村贫困人口收入水平差异的主要原因。

The stability of the income growth of the rural poor residents is a hot issue concerned by many disciplines.Based on the spatio-temporal analysis of rural poor residents’income in Chongqing from 2014 to 2019,this paper uses the shift-share method to classify the income growth types of the rural poor residents in 33 districts and counties with poverty alleviation and development tasks,and analyzes the income sources and growth power of rural poor residents in different districts and counties.It puts forward some suggestions for different income growth types.The research results show that:1)During the research period,the income growth of rural poor residents in Chongqing is on the rise,and the spatial distribution of the income level of rural poor residents in counties gradually changes from non-equilibrium to equilibrium.However,there are still obvious spatial differences in the income structure.2)Wage income is the leading source of the family income of the rural poor residents in Chongqing.Transfer income becomes the second important source of family income of the rural poor by replacing the family operational income,and property income still accounts for a low percentage of rural poor residents’income.3)In most key counties of poverty alleviation and development in Chongqing,rural poor residents’income is driven by rapid growth and competitive advantage of the income.The regional competitive advantage of income is the main driving force for the rapid income growth of the rural poor residents in these districts and counties.However,most non-key counties of poverty alleviation and development belong to the type of income growth lag and are driven by structural advantage.The regional competitive disadvantage loss of income is the main reason for the income growth lag of the rural poor residents in these districts and counties.4)The industrial mix effect and the regional competitive effect of the wage income and transfer income among counties are the main reasons for the differences of income level of rural poor residents in all districts and counties.