近60年来粤港澳大湾区气温变化规律

The variation of temperature in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in recent 60 years

文章选取粤港澳大湾区1961-2018年平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温、极端最高气温和极端最低气温为研究对象,用气候倾向率法表示气温的年代际变化趋势和幅度;用气温距平值与气温标准差进行气候异常年份识别;应用两种突变检验方法(Mann-Kendall法、滑动t检验法)对各温度类型的突变状况进行检验,以分析气温的跃变现象.结果表明:①近60年来粤港澳大湾区的气温一直处于周期较短的波动变化当中,气温总体呈弱上升趋势,演变过程较为平缓.其增温率明显低于全中国、中国西北地区以及全球;②湾区内的气温呈现持续的冷暖交替.58年来总体上发生异常的概率为8%~14%,除2000 s外其余各年代均出现冷年,暖年多出现于1960s以及2010s;③1月最低气温在2002年发生突变、1月极端最低气温在1981年发生突变、7月最高气温在1997年发生突变、7月极端最低气温在1993年发生突变,其余温度类型经检验均未发生突变.其中7月对于整体气温变暖的贡献更为突出.对各气象因子进行主成分分析以及通过衡量气候因子的变异程度,可知引起气温变化的主要影响因素是气压、相对湿度和蒸发量等,在最冷月时还受风速的影响.气温出现暖异常是受到热带太平洋海表面异常增温以及东亚季风和南海季风转型的影响,此外,西伯利亚高压和大气环流状态的改变引起寒潮,使气温出现冷异常.

The average temperature,average maximum temperature,average minimum temperature,extreme maximum temperature,and extreme minimum temperature in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area from 1961 to 2018 are selected as the research objects,and the climate tendency rate method is used to express the interdecadal change trend and range of temperature;The temperature anomaly value and the temperature standard deviation are applied to identify the abnormal climate year;two mutation test methods(Mann-Kendall method,sliding t test method)are used for testing the sudden changes of various temperature types to analyze the jump of temperature phenomenon.The results show that:①For the past six decades,the temperature in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has been fluctuating within a short cycle.The temperature has generally shown a weak upward trend and the evolution process has been relatively gentle.Its temperature increase rate is significantly lower than that of China,Northwest China and the world.②The temperature in the Bay Area presents a continuous alternation between cold and warm.The overall probability of anomalies in the past 58 years has been 8%-14%.Cold years have occurred in all the years except 2000s,and warm years have mostly occurred in the 1960s and 2010s.③The minimum temperature has a sudden change in January 2002,the extreme minimum temperature has a sudden change in January 1981,the maximum temperature has a sudden change in July 1997,and the extreme minimum temperature has a sudden change in July 1993.The other temperature types have no abrupt change after examination.The contribution of July to the overall temperature warming is more prominent.Principal component analysis of various meteorological factors and measurement of the degree of variation of climate factors show that the main influencing factors that cause temperature changes are air pressure,relative humidity,and evaporation,which are also affected by wind speed during the coldest month.The warm anomaly of temperature is affected by the abnormal warming of the tropical Pacific ocean surface and the transition of the East Asian monsoon and the South China Sea monsoon.In addition,the Siberian high pressure and changes in the atmospheric circulation state cause cold waves and influence the temperature cold anomalies.