河南省人口老龄化发展趋势预测

Population Aging Trend Forecast in Henan Province

文章基于2000-2019年河南省老年人口比重数据,分别利用ARIMA(0,1,1)模型和灰色系统GM(1,1)模型对河南省人口老龄化的变化趋势进行了拟合、分析和预测。结果表明:两种模型均具有较好的拟合效果,且预测值非常接近,说明未来几年河南省人口老龄化日趋严重,这可能给该省的社会和经济发展带来一定的影响。

Based on the data of the proportion of the elderly population in Henan Province from the year 2000 to 2019,this article uses ARIMA(0,1,1)model and grey system GM(1,1)model respectively to fit,analyze and forecast the changing trend of the population aging in Henan Province.Results show that both the two models have good fitting effects,and the predicted values are very close,which indicates that the population aging in Henan Province will become more and more serious in the next few years,which may bring certain influence to the social and economic development of Henan Province.