近地面臭氧污染对江苏省冬小麦产量的影响评估

An Analysis of Ozone Damage to Historical Winter Wheat Yields in Jiangsu Province

江苏省是全国冬小麦主产区,同时也面临着严重的臭氧污染。基于大气污染环境建模研究得到精细化、长时间尺度臭氧浓度数据,以江苏省下辖97个县级行政区为研究单元,结合AOT40的暴露响应关系,评估2007—2019年臭氧污染导致的冬小麦产量损失。结果表明,2007—2019年冬小麦生长期AOT40的范围为10.71~22.14 ppm·h,在2017年达到峰值。2015年以前苏南污染较为严重,近五年来苏北地区,特别是徐州臭氧污染加剧。冬小麦总产量的51.6%暴露在15.0~17.5 ppm·h的臭氧剂量。2007—2019年,江苏省冬小麦年相对产量损失范围为14.42%~23.92%,年产量损失达275~544万t,约相当于2.5~5千万人的粮食消费。臭氧污染对江苏省冬小麦生产造成了较为严重的威胁,应当采取有效的大气污染防治措施进一步减轻污染水平,保障粮食生产安全。

As the main grain production area of winter wheat in China,Jiangsu is facing serious ozone pollution.The exposure-response relationships based on AOT40 was used to estimate yield losses of rice and winter wheat in 2007~2019,using modeling hourly ozone data and grain production data of 97 districts and counties.For years 2007 to 2019,AOT40 value were 10.71~22.14 ppm·h for winter wheat,peaked in 2017.The high value distribution of AOT40 in growing season is more in southern Jiangsu before 2015,and the AOT40 increased significantly in northern Jiangsu in recent five years,especially in Xuzhou.51.6%of total winter wheat production was exposed to 15.0~17.5 ppm·h.During 2007,2019,the relative yield losses were 14.42%~23.92%,and the production losses were 275~544 million tons.Annual production losses can support grain consumption of 25~50 million people per year.Results suggest that ground-level ozone pollution poses a serious threat to food security.Overcoming this yield loss with improved effective policies and emission controls could ensure the stability of food production.