“一带一路”倡议与中国居民家庭消费结构升级——基于准自然实验的双重差分模型分析

"the Belt and Road"Initiative and Chinese Household Consumption Structer Upgrading—Based on a Quasi-Natural Experiment Using Difference-in-Difference Model Analysis

本文以“一带一路”倡议的提出作为准自然实验,采用双重差分模型探究“一带一路”倡议对中国居民家庭消费结构升级的影响机制和效应。研究显示,“一带一路”倡议的提出和实施显著推动了中国居民家庭消费结构由生存型向发展和享受型转变,在替换衡量消费结构的其他被解释变量后,上述结论依然稳健。从分项的研究结果来看,“一带一路”倡议主要带动了医疗保健消费支出占比的增加,对交通通讯消费和文教娱乐消费支出占比的影响虽然为正,但在样本期间内并不显著。从城乡异质性来看,“一带一路”倡议促进了城镇居民家庭消费结构由生存型向发展和享受型转变,且在降低食品消费支出方面对农村居民家庭的作用强度更大。本文的研究为后疫情时期“一带一路”倡议的进一步实施以及国内国际双循环格局的形成提供了理论基础和决策参考依据。

This paper regards "the Belt and Road" Initiative as a quasi-natural experiment and uses the difference-in-difference model to study the impact of "the Belt and Road" Initiative on Chinese household consumption upgrading. The result illustrates that "the Belt and Road" Initiative has significantly boosted China’s household consumption structure from survival to development and enjoyment. The above conclusion is still robust after changing the explanatory variables that measure consumption structure.Additionally, "the Belt and Road" Initiative is mainly driven by the increase in the proportion of consumption expenditure for medical care consumption, while the impact on consumption of transportation,communications, culture, education and entertainment is positive,but it is not significant during the sample period. Furthermore, "the Belt and Road" Initiative is mainly to promote the change of urban residents’ consumption structure from survival to development and enjoyment, however, it has a greater effect on rural residents in reducing food consumption expenditure. All in all, this paper expands the research framework of "he Belt and Road" Initiative policy and the realization of domestic and international double circulation in the post-epidemic era, which may be a good reference for followup policy decision-making.