贸易网络、 不确定性与出口扩张

Trade Networks,Uncertainty and Export Expansion

通过构建不确定性下的动态出口决策模型,本文揭示了企业贸易网络对出口扩张的促进作用和影响机制。随后,基于中国海关数据库与BACI数据库,本文构建了企业自身和邻近企业贸易网络与社群网络强度的指标,并进行了实证检验。结果表明:第一,企业自身与邻近企业的贸易网络可以有效促进新贸易关系的实现;第二,贸易网络主要通过降低企业出口中的不确定性发挥作用;第三,企业更倾向于在已出口的目的地社群实现新贸易关系。本文的研究结论为企业加强现有贸易网络的维护和共享,提升出口产业链现代化水平提供了政策启示。

By constructing a dynamic export decision model under uncertainty,this paper reveals the promotion and its mechanism of firms’trade networks on export expansion.Then,China Customs Statistics and BACI database are used to construct the comprehensive trade network indexes of the firms themselves and the neighboring firms for empirical test.The results show that the trade network of the firms themselves and the neighboring firms could effectively reduce the uncertainty in the export,which is conducive to the establishment of the potential trade relationship.Furthermore,it is found that firms are more inclined to establish new trade relations in the destination communities where they have exported.The conclusion of this paper provides policy implications for firms to strengthen the maintenance and sharing of existing trade networks and upgrade the modernization level of the export industrial chain.