环境规制对山东省经济高质量发展的时空影响

The Impact of Environmental Regulations on the High Quality Economic Development of Shandong Province

采用GIS空间分析方法全面剖析2011—2017年山东省环境规制与经济高质量发展的时空格局特征,运用动态面板的系统GMM估计方法定量分析环境规制对经济高质量发展的时空影响,结论如下:(1)山东省环境规制强度上升趋势较为明显,环境规制高水平地区主要集中在东北部沿海、沿河地区以及西部“通道”地区;(2)山东省经济高质量发展水平呈逐年增加态势,呈东北高、西南低的空间分布格局;(3)环境规制对山东省经济高质量发展水平的影响呈“U”型关系,具有门槛效应,且2016年以后大部分城市开始逐渐越过门槛值。人力资本、固定资本、外商直接投资与经济高质量发展水平均呈显著正相关关系,而外贸依存度与经济高质量发展水平呈显著负相关关系。

GIS spatial analysis method was used to comprehensively analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of environmental regulation and economic development of Shandong Province from 2011 to 2017.System GMM Estimation Method based on panel system was used to quantitatively analyze the spatial and temporal impact of environmental regulation on economic development.The conclusions are as follows:(1)The intensity of environmental regulation in Shandong Province increased obviously.The high-level areas of environmental regulation mainly concentrated in the northeastern coastal areas along rivers and western“corridor”areas.(2)Economic development level in Shandong Province increased gradually from 2011 to 2017,the spatial distribution pattern was high in northeast and low in southwest.(3)The impact of environmental regulation on economic development level in Shandong Province was“U”shaped and had a threshold effect.Most cities in Shandong Province had gradually crossed the threshold after 2016.Human capital,fixed capital and foreign direct investment were significantly positively correlated with the level of economic development,while the degree of foreign trade dependence was significantly negatively correlated with the level of economic development.