摘要
建立了一类潜伏期具备传染性的传染病传播模型,根据疾病传播规律求解了疾病消失和持续生存的阈值——基本再生数.对系统的稳定性进行了讨论,得到了系统稳定性条件.最后,以COVID⁃19为例,解释了各种举措在疾病控制中的作用,并对疫情传播扩散做了探讨和预测.
A transmission model for infectious diseases with infectivity in the latent periods was established.According to the law of disease transmission,the basic regeneration number,as the threshold of disease disap⁃pearance and spread,was solved.The stability of the system was discussed and the stability condition for the system was obtained.With the COVID⁃19 pandemic as an example,the effects of various measures for disease control were studied.The spread of the pandemic was discussed and predicted.The work makes a reference for epidemic disease control.
作者
张丽娟
王福昌
万永革
李振刚
ZHANG Lijuan;WANG Fuchang;WAN Yongge;LI Zhengang(Institute of Disaster Prevention,China Earthquake Administration,Sanhe,Hebei 065201,P.R.China;Hebei Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics,Sanhe,Hebei 065201,P.R.China;Institute of Sociology,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100010,P.R.China)
出处
《应用数学和力学》
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第8期866-873,共8页
Applied Mathematics and Mechanics
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费(ZY20215155)
国家自然科学基金(41674055)。
