基于电力市场交易影响的中长期负荷预测方法分析

Analysis of Medium and Long-term Load Forecasting Methods Based on the Influence of Power Market Transactions

中长期电力负荷预测是进行电力规划、投资、生产和运行的重要基础,在电力系统中发挥重要作用。同时,市场化改革在一定程度上改变了电力行业的格局,放开了发电计划与售电市场,引发了自主市场行为,捕捉与预测难度较大。文章优化了电网规划思路,在考虑电力市场交易影响的情况下进行中长期负荷预测方法分析。

Medium and long-term load forecasting is an important basis for power planning,investment,production and operation,and plays an important role in power system.At the same time,the market-oriented reforms have changed the pattern of the power industry to a certain extent,liberalized the power generation planning and sales market,triggered the independent market behavior,and made it more diffi cult to capture and predict.The article optimizes the idea of power grid planning,and analyzes the medium and long-term load forecasting methods in consideration of the impact of power market transactions.