巨型商业星座发展对轨道资源影响探索

Analysis on Influence of Giant Commercial Constellations on Orbit Resources

巨型商业星座对空间碎片环境必将带来颠覆性的影响,必须及早面对,积极应对,提出合理的对策。本文在现有空间物体的基础上,分别对部署一网(OneWeb)星座、星链(Starlink)星座及同时部署两个巨型星座后,其对相应轨道高度的空间密度分布、碰撞概率分布的增长率变化规避开展分析。得到在影响最大的高度,其增长率接近18倍的结论。由此可知,巨型星座的部署,对运行在其轨道高度范围内的航天器,将带来巨大的碰撞风险增量。开展巨型星座对重要轨道资源影响分析,可为相关分析和决策提供参考。

At present,the huge commercial constellations in low orbit are booming,which will inevitably have a disruptive influence on the space debris environment.It has become a problem that needs attention in the development of LEO satellites.It must be dealt with as soon as possible and actively responded,and reasonable countermeasures have been proposed.Based on the existing LEO space object distribution model,this paper takes the deployment of the typical constellations of OneWeb constellation and Starlink constellation as examples,and carries out a quantitative analysis of the spatial density distribution,collision probability distribution growth and change law of the corresponding orbital heights.At the most influential height,its growth rate is close to 18 times.It can be seen that the deployment of a giant commercial constellation will bring a huge increase in collision risk to spacecraft operating within its orbital height range.The deployment orbit selection of the LEO satellite needs to pay attention to this risk.