基于时序耦合系数的地区新能源可增装机规模研究

Research on Regional Increasable New Energy Installed Scale Based on Time-Series Coupling Coefficient

为了更深入地了解地区新能源消纳能力,更准确地获取地区新能源可增装机规模,提出了一种基于地区风-光-荷时序耦合系数的新能源消纳能力研究方法,以江苏省淮安市作为研究对象,全面分析了该地区风电、光伏及传统能源的出力特性和负荷特性。以历史实测电源出力及负荷数据为基础,分析确定了该地区新能源大发的典型场景,归纳获得了典型场景下该地区的风-光-荷时序耦合系数。基于风-光-荷时序耦合系数对该地区未来3年新能源消纳能力和可增装机规模进行了定量计算。相比于传统方法,提出的方法具有更高的准确性与可靠性。

In order to have a deeper understanding of the regional maximum installed capacity of allowed grid-connected new energy and more accurately obtain the regional increasable new energy installed scale,this paper proposes a research method for maximum installed capacity of allowed grid-connected new energy based on time-series coupling coefficient of regional wind power,photovoltaic power and load.Taking Huai’an City of Jiangsu Province as the research object,the paper comprehensively analyzes the output and load characteristics of wind power,photovoltaic power and traditional energy in this region.Then,based on the historical actual measured power output and load data,the paper analyzes and determines the typical scenarios of new energy high output in the region,and summarizes the time-series coupling coefficient of regional wind power,photovoltaic power and load in the obtained typical scenario.Finally,based on the time-series coupling coefficient of regional wind power,photovoltaic power and load,the paper quantitatively calculates the maximum installed capacity of allowed grid-connected new energy and increasable new energy installed scale of this region in the next three years.Compared with the traditional methods,the proposed method has higher accuracy and reliability.