美国零利率下限约束的经济效应研究

A Study of Economic Effects of Zero Lower Bound in the United States

零利率下限约束条件是常规货币政策与非常规货币政策的分水岭,通过构建考虑了零利率下限约束的动态随机一般均衡模型,发现政府支出冲击和出口冲击两种需求性冲击对美国产出、消费和劳动发挥了扩张性作用,并且随着盯住零利率期限的延长,扩张性作用越发明显,其主要是通过提高通货膨胀从而降低实际利率的影响机制实现政策效果。但是,诸如技术冲击这类供给性冲击对美国产出、消费和劳动造成负向扩张作用,并且盯住零利率时间越长,负向作用越明显。研究结论显示:在盯住零利率下限约束时,结合宽松的财政政策,更有利于实现经济复苏。

Zero lower bound is the watershed between conventional monetary policy and unconventional monetary policy.Based on establishing the Zero Lower Bound model,that is,a DSGE model including zero lower bound,we can find that the demand shocks such as government expenditure shock and export shock plays an expansionary role in American output,consumption and labor.And with the extension of the zero lower bound period,the expansionary effect becomes more and more obvious.This is mainly achieved through policy mechanisms that raising inflation and thus cutting real interest rates.However,supply shocks such as technological shock have a negative expansionary effect on American output,consumption and labor,and the longer zero interest rates are pegged,the more obvious the negative effects become.Based on this research,corresponding policy suggestions to Chinese monetary authorities is put forward.