中日政治关系对双边贸易的动态影响研究

The Study on the Dynamic Effects of Sino-Japanese Political Relations on Bilateral Trade

选用可以识别动态影响的TVP-SV-VAR模型,分别从不同提前期和不同时点的双重视角进行实证研究。结果表明:中日政治关系恶化在大部分时间段内会使双边贸易额下降,但这一影响持续的时间较短;受2008年金融危机、特朗普政府对日政策变化、全球经济低迷等影响,中日政治关系与双边贸易在短期内可能会出现负相关;双边贸易带来的巨大经济利益能够在部分时期推动中日政治关系的改善;双边政治关系在不同事件背景下对中日贸易的影响机制是有差异的。

This paper applies the TVP-SV-VAR model,which can identify the dynamic effects,to perform empirical analysis from two perspectives:at different ahead periods and time points.The results indicate that the deterioration of Sino-Japanese political relations may decrease bilateral trade during the most periods,but this impact only lasts for a relatively short time.Due to the 2008 financial crisis,the changes in the Trump administration’s policy towards Japan and the global economic downturn,Sino-Japanese political relations and bilateral trade may have negative interrelationship in the short term.In turn,the huge economic interests brought by the bilateral trade can promote the improvement of Sino-Japanese political relations during certain periods.Moreover,the transmission mechanisms of bilateral political relations to Sino-Japanese trade are different in the various events.