超临界非纯CO_(2)输送管道区域人类健康风险评估的QRA概率模型及应用

QRA PROBABILITY MODEL FOR HUMAN HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT IN SUPERCRITICAL NON-PURE CO_(2) PIPELINE TRANSPORTATION AREA AND ITS APPLICATION

研究了超临界非纯CO_(2)热力学参数特征,对非纯CO_(2)泄漏过程中的动态物理参数进行了解析,应用流体数值模拟分析了不同情况下(风速及泄漏孔径)CO_(2)扩散规律。将风速v、距离x、泄漏孔径类型及逻辑函数Lv概率分布特征与数值模拟相关结果应用于QRA定量风险评估模型。结合轻微伤害、不可逆伤害与致死3种危害等级对应浓度阈值4%、10%及25%,对超临界非纯CO_(2)输送管道区域个体3种类型健康风险(HR_(1)、HR_(2)、HR_(3))进行定量化评估。结果表明:在大孔径泄漏情景下,距离泄漏点200 m范围内个体致死风险,高于可容忍健康风险水平(10-5),200~350 m内个体致死风险高于可接受健康风险水平(10-6),个体轻微伤害风险直至距离1850 m才降低至可接受健康风险水平。研究结果可应用于CCUS超临界输送管道路线和设计早期阶段,为探索减轻人群健康风险替代方案提供定量化数据参考。

Characteristics of thermodynamic parameters of supercritical CO_(2), and analysis of dynamic physical parameters during non-pure CO_(2) leakage, as well as computational fluid dynamics method were conducted to study the diffusion law of CO_(2) under different conditions. Wind speed v, distance x, leakage aperture type, probability distribution characteristics of logical functions lv and relevant results of numerical simulation were applied to the QRA quantitative risk assessment model. Combined with mild injury, irreversible injury and death, three types of health risks(HR_(1), HR_(2) and HR_(3)) in supercritical non-pure CO_(2) pipeline area were quantitatively evaluated. The results showed that under large aperture leakage scenario, the individual mortality risk within the distance of 200 m from the leakage point was higher than the tolerable level(10-5);and the individual mortality health risk within 200~350 m was higher than the acceptable level(10-6), and the individual slight health risk couldn’t be reduced to the acceptable level until a distance of 1850 m from the leakage point. The research results could be applied to the route and early design stage of CCUS supercritical pipeline, and provided quantitative data support for exploring alternatives to reduce population health risk.