工业企业自生能力与存活时间:基于新结构经济学视角

Viability and Survival Duration of Industrial Enterprises:Based on the Perspective of New Structural Economics

本文基于新结构经济学视角,放松企业自生能力这一新古典主义的经典假设,构建了一个将企业技术选择纳入目标函数的随机规划模型,发现企业自生能力理论可以解释企业存活的差异。利用1998—2013年中国工业企业数据库,本文详细描述了企业存活的特征、分布以及动态演进趋势,并进行了生存分析。实证结果表明,缺乏自生能力的企业存活时间更短。该结论通过了离散时间模型的稳健性检验,分地区、所有制、出口和补贴情况的异质性分析以及经倾向得分匹配后的生存时间模型的回归。这一研究为进一步推进市场化改革的政策讨论提供了理论和经验支持。

Based on the perspective of new structural economics,this paper relaxes the classic neoclassical hypothesis of enterprise viability,constructs a stochastic programming model with the technological choice included in the objective function,and finds that the theory of corporate viability can explain the difference of firm survival behavior.Apart from that,the characteristics,distribution,dynamic evolution trend of firm survival which also includes survival analysis are described in detail by using the Annual Survey of Industrial Firms dataset covering the period between 1998 to 2013.The empirical analysis shows that the firms lacking viability are more likely to have shorter survival duration.The results have passed the robustness test at discrete-time level,the heterogeneity analysis of different regions,ownership,export and subsidies,as well as the survival analysis regression after matching the propensity score.This study provides theoretical and empirical support for further promoting the policy discussion of market-oriented reforms.