面向台风气象的电网运行风险态势感知方法

Situation Awareness Method of Power Grid Operation Risk Under Typhoon Weather

台风灾害的频发导致电网大规模停电事故,给国民经济带来巨大损失,为评估电网应对台风天气的能力以及辨识电网在极端气象下的风险态势,基于态势感知技术,提出面向台风气象的电网运行风险态势感知方法,建立了台风下电网实时运行风险指标体系。首先,态势觉察阶段以台风气象数据、电网结构参数、地理数据构建风场模型;其次,在态势理解阶段提出基于时变风速的贝叶斯网络,建立考虑风速和断线故障导致潮流转移的电网时变风险传播模型,并采用拉丁超立方抽样的蒙特卡洛模拟法,通过最优直流潮流进行态势理解,然后提出态势呈现指标体系,以实现线路风险态势、负荷水平态势、电网韧性态势的呈现和预测。采用IEEE-RTS 79标准节点算例进行仿真,结果表明面向台风气象的电网运行风险态势感知方法及指标能够有效评估电网运行风险态势。

The frequent occurrence of typhoon disasters leads to large-scale power outage accidents in the power grid,which brings huge losses to the national economy.In order to evaluate the power grid’s ability to deal with typhoon weather and identify the risk situation of the power grid under extreme weather,on the basis of the situational awareness technology,we propose a situational awareness method for power grid operation risk under typhoon weather,and establish a real-time risk index system for power grid operation under typhoon weather.Firstly,in the situation perception stage,the wind field model and line fault model are constructed by using typhoon data,power grid structure parameters,and geographical data.Then,in the situation comprehension stage,a Bayesian network based on time-varying wind speed is proposed,and a time-varying risk propagation model of power grid considering wind speed and power flow transfer is established.The Monte Carlo simulation method based on Latin hypercube sampling is used through the optimal DC power flow.Finally,a situation projection index system is proposed to realize the projection and prediction of line risk situation,load level situation,and power grid resilience situation during the situation projection stage.The simulation results show that the situation awareness method of power grid operation risk under typhoon weather can be adopted to effectively evaluate the power grid operation risk situation based on IEEE-RTS 79 standard example.