“未来今日研究所”趋势报告中技术趋势研究方法及应用研究

Research on Technology Trends Research Methods and Applications in FTI Trends Report

[目的/意义]技术趋势分析与预测已成为实现创新性技术突破及未来战略布局的重要手段。对美国"未来今日研究所"(FTI)《2020技术趋势报告》中技术趋势研究方法及应用展开深入剖析,以期为后续研究与实践提供借鉴与参考。[方法/过程]针对FTI趋势报告所采用的技术趋势分析与预测方法,以及FTI所创建的帮助用户利用技术趋势开展战略规划和行动部署的框架工具进行归纳、分析与评价。[结果/结论]拟定量分析法是技术趋势预测最优的方法类型;未来研究方法在技术趋势研究中被广泛采纳;多元研究方法交叉融合的发展特征凸显;辅助工具是实现技术趋势预测应用价值的必要保障。

[Purpose/significance]The analysis and forecasting of technology trends is regarded as an important means to achieve innovative technological breakthroughs and future strategic planning.This paper conducted an in-depth analysis of the research methods and applications of technology trends in the"2020 Tech Trends Report"by Future Today Institute(FTI)from the United States,in order to provide reference for subsequent research and practice.[Method/process]Summarize,analyze and evaluate the technology trends analysis and forecasting methods used in the FTI trends report,as well as the framework tools created by FTI to help users use technology trends to carry out strategic planning and action deployment.[Result/conclusion]Quasi-quantitative analysis is the best method for technology trends prediction;future research methods are widely adopted in technology trends research;the integrated application of multiple research methods on technology trends is popular;facilitating tools are necessary to realize the application value of technology trends prediction.