SPAR-H方法中行为形成因子间的相关性识别

Identification of Correlation among Performance Shaping Factors of SPAR-H Method

标准化核电厂风险分析-人因可靠性分析方法(SPAR-H)是目前国际上认可和接受的人因可靠性分析方法,但其8个行为形成因子(PSFs)间存在交叉部分,导致人因失误概率重复计算或高估。为了改进SPAR-H的PSFs体系,通过统计2007年到2017年219份国内核电厂运行事件报告,筛选出与主控室操纵员运行有关的89份人因事件/事故报告进行PSFs相关性的研究,运用数据挖掘技术(关联规则分析、探索性因子分析、皮尔森相关性分析)对统计结果进行分析。结果表明:(1)复杂度、压力、职责适宜以及可用时间4个PSFs之间存在相关性。其中,复杂度分别与压力和职责适宜相关,职责适宜与压力、压力与可用时间相关;(2)工作过程、规程、人因工程/人机界面和经验/培训之间存在关联。在涉及经验/培训、人因工程/人机界面和规程的事件中,很大概率还涉及到工作过程。这些结论可以给改进SPAR-H的PSFs体系提供参考,为定量研究PSFs间的因果关系建立基础。

Standardized Plant Analysis of Risk-Human reliability analysis(SPAR-H)is an internationally known and accepted human reliability analysis(HRA)method in nuclear power plants(NPPs).However,the eight performance shaping factors(PSFs)overlap,resulting in the double count or over estimation of the human error probabilities(HEPs).To improve its PSFs system,89 human error event reports related to the operation of operators in the main control room were collected from 219 operating event reports of Chinese NPPs from 2007 to 2017.The correlation among the PSFs was then studied.Therein,three kinds of data mining methods,i.e.,association rule analysis,exploratory factor analysis and Pearson correlation analysis,were used.Results show that:a.there is a significant correlation among complexity,stress/stressor,fitness for duty and available time,in which the c the complexity correlates with stress/stressor and fitness for duty,the fitness for duty correlates with stress/stressor,and the stress/stressor correlates with available time;(2)there also exists correlation among work process,procedure,ergonomics/HMI and experience/training.In the event involving the procedure,ergonomics/HMI or experience/training,work process is involved with a high probability.These findings can be used as the reference in the improvement of the PSFs system of SPAR-H and as the basis in the quantitative study of the cause-and-effect dependences among the PSFs.