农业资本、农户投资支持农村产业融合发展路径研究

Research on the Path of Agricultural Capital and Farmers’Investment to Support the Development of Rural Industry Integration

基于2009-2018年我国大陆31个省区市的面板数据,从农业产业内部重组融合、农业与第二产业延伸融合、农业与第三产业延伸融合三个层面共12项指标建立综合评价指标体系,运用投影寻踪模型对我国农村产业融合水平进行测度;并在此基础上,运用中介效应模型、链式中介模型,探究以农业保险、农业贷款、财政支农为代表的农业资本和农户投资支持农村产业融合发展的传导路径。结果显示,共有10条路径显著。其中,财政支农对农业贷款、农户投资的促进作用,农业贷款增强农业保险对农户投资、农村产业融合的支持作用是路径成立的关键;农户投资削弱农业保险对农村产业融合的支持作用、农业保险削弱农业贷款对农户投资的支持作用是阻碍农村产业融合发展的瓶颈。

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces,autonomous regions and cities in China's Mainland from 2009 to 2018,the paper establishes a comprehensive evaluation index system based on 12 indexes from three aspects of internal restructuring and integra⁃tion of agricultural industry,extension and integration of agriculture and secondary industry,extension and integration of agricul⁃ture and tertiary industry,and uses projection pursuit model to measure the level of rural industrial integration in China.On this ba⁃sis,using the intermediary effect model and chain intermediary model,this paper explores the transmission path to support the inte⁃grated development of rural industries with agricultural capital and farmers’investment which are represented by agricultural insur⁃ance,agricultural loans,financial support for agriculture.The results show that there are 10 significant paths,among which,the key to the path is the promotion of financial support for agriculture on agricultural loans and farmers’investment,and the support of ag⁃ricultural loans to enhance agricultural insurance on Farmers’investment and rural industrial integration;Farmers’investment weakens the supporting role of agricultural insurance for rural industrial integration,and agricultural insurance weakens the sup⁃porting role of agricultural loans for farmers’investment,which is the bottleneck to hinder the development of rural industrial inte⁃gration.