双循环战略下新冠疫情对内循环的影响效应分析——基于全国31个省区市的经验证据

Exploring the Impact of COVID-19 on Inward Out Circulation in the Strategy of Dual Circulations——Evidence From 31 Chinese Provinces

国内国际经济双循环是国家为有效应对新冠疫情,恢复经济增长而提出的一项重要战略,其中国内经济循环为双循环之基础。本文使用2020年全国31个省区市的季度面板数据,构建空间杜宾面板模型并就疫情通过消费和投资等内需要素对内循环产生的短期影响效应进行分析。研究发现:(1)新冠疫情对2020年中国经济增长和内循环产生了负向供给冲击:其对内循环的平均直接效应系数约为-0.07;平均空间溢出效应系数约为-0.223;平均总效应系数约为-0.295;(2)消费行为存在棘轮效应;消费需求对内循环的影响效应显著为正:其直接效应系数约为94.163;空间溢出效应系数和总效应系数分别为488.082和582.245。提出了促进消费升级等统筹疫情防控和经济运行等建议。

The strategy of dual circulations is put forward to effectively address the COVID-19 pandemic and to revive Chinese economic growth,of which the inward out circulation is the cornerstone. Using 31 provinces’ quarter panel data of 2020 as well as spatial Durbin model,the paper evaluates the short-run impact of COVID-19 on national economic growth and inward out circulation by analyzing consumption and investment that are crucial to domestic demand. The main findings are:( 1) COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected Chinese economic growth and inward out circulation in 2020 in the form of supply shock. Specifically,the coefficient of average direct effect is about-0. 07;and that of average spatial spillover effect is around-0. 223;thus the coefficient of total average effect is roughly-0. 295;( 2) there exists a ratchet effect in consumption. Furthermore,consumption has significantly positively affected the inward out circulation: the coefficient of direct effect is approximately 94. 163. The coefficient of spatial spillover effect and total effect is about 488. 082 and 582. 245,respectively. Finally,recommendations including enhancing consumption level,among others,trading off between COVID-19 eradication and accelerating inward out circulation are proposed based on the findings.