中国区域碳达峰预测 与“双碳”目标实现策略研究

Research of Regional Carbon Peak Prediction and Strategy of Achieving Carbon Emission Peak and Carbon Neutralization Goal in China

区域“碳达峰”与“碳中和”目标的实现对于全国“双碳”目标的实现具有重要现实意义。本文运用扩展的STIRPAT模型和情景分析法,预测了我国五大区域碳达峰时间、数量以及差异性,给出了五大区域“双碳”目标实现的策略。研究结果表明:东部、中部和西南在2020年达峰,东北和西北在2030年达峰,全国2030年前达峰的目标可以实现,但东部有达峰总量大的压力,西北面临着达峰量大且达峰时间晚的双重压力。五大区域“碳达峰”和“碳中和”目标实现的重点在于减碳,主要策略包括区域自身的产业和能源绿色转型,区域间的产业和能源协调发展以及如何破解协同发展的约束。

The realization of regional carbon peak and carbon neutralization goal is of great practical significance for the realization of the national“bi-carbon”goal.By using the extended STIRPAT model and scenario analysis method,this paper scientifically forecasts the time,quantity and difference of carbon peak in five regions of China,and puts forward the strategies to achieve“bi-carbon”goal in five regions.The results show that:the East,central and Southwest will reach the peak in 2020,and the Northeast and Northwest will reach the peak in 2030.The national goal of reaching the peak before 2030 can be achieved,but the East has the pressure of large amount of peak,and the Northwest is facing the double pressure of large amount of peak and late peak time.The main strategies include the green transformation of regional industry and energy,the coordinated development of regional industry and energy,and how to break the constraints of collaborative development.