湖北省清洁能源与绿色经济增长动态关系研究——基于VAR模型

Research on the Dynamic Relationship between Clean Energy and Green Economic Growth in Hubei Province--Based on VAR Model

本文通过核算湖北省2005—2017年的清洁能源消费与绿色经济增长两个变量指标,检验发现两个变量的一阶差分满足平稳性要求,通过建立VAR模型分析发现:清洁能源与绿色经济增长具有双向因果关系,其中清洁能源对绿色经济增长冲击作用相对较强,并且两者发展主要贡献均来源于绿色经济增长,就其动态周期的变化来看,在十年后逐步趋向于稳定,并对两者的增量变化进行了预测。

By calculating the two variable indicators of clean energy consumption and green economic growth in Hubei Province from 2005 to 2017, the test found that the first-order difference of the two variables meets the stability requirement, and then explores the dynamic relationship between the two variable increments.The empirical results based on the VAR model show that clean energy and green economic growth have a first-infirst-out causal relationship. Among them, clean energy has a relatively strong impact on green economic growth. Judging from the changes in the cycle, it will gradually stabilize after ten years, and the incremental changes of the two are predicted.