宏观网络视角下世界原木贸易关系形成的影响因素分析

Influence Factors to the Formation of the World Log Trade Network:A Macro Network Perspective

文中从内生自组织结构、国家属性以及其他关系网络等视角,利用指数随机图模型对原木贸易网络的影响因素进行实证检验。具体来看,国家经济规模是影响原木贸易网络中核心-半边缘-边缘特征的最主要因素,是推动一国成为原木贸易网络核心国家的主要力量。其中,经济规模排名中等国家之间原木贸易关系较为密切。从关系网络来看,原木贸易国家之间地理临近、签订自由贸易协定以及共同官方语言都极大地推动了原木贸易关系的形成;从制度属性来看,政治属性中国家政治稳定程度、政府效能和监管质量对原木贸易关系影响程度最高,经济属性中贸易自由度影响程度最高,法律属性中法律完备度和产权保护度对原木贸易关系都有显著的正向促进作用;资源属性中森林资源禀赋越高的国家越容易形成贸易关系,同时森林认证的影响程度正逐步增强。

From the perspective of endogenous self-organization structure,national attributes and other relationship networks,this paper uses exponential random graph models to analyze the influence factors to log trade network.Specifically,the national economic scale is the most important factor affecting the core periphery structure of log trade network,and the main force making a country the core country of log trade network.However,the log trade relations among the medium economic scaled countries are relatively close;The geographical proximity,free trade agreements and the same official languages have greatly promoted the formation of log trade relations among the log trading countries;The extent of political stability,government efficiency,supervision quality,and trade freedom have the highest impact,and the degree of legal integrity and the degree of property right protection in the legal attribute have a significantly positive role in promoting the log trade relationship.Countries with higher forest resource endowment are more likely to form trade relations,and the impact of forest certification is gradually increasing.