2014-2019年深圳市南山区本地登革热时空分析

Temporal and spatial analysis of indigenous dengue cases in Nanshan district of Shenzhen,2014-2019

目的了解2014-2019年深圳市南山区本地登革热流行病学特点,明确南山区登革热本地病例高发区域及高发时间。方法采用描述性分析方法分析2014-2019年南山区登革热本地病例流行病学概况,探索高发时间,采用地理信息系统(GIS)技术探索登革热高发区域。结果 2014-2019年南山区共报告167例本地登革热病例,累计发病率11.18/10万;病例男女性别比为1.74∶1,年龄以20<50岁为主(115例,占68.87%),职业以民工最多(39例,占23.35%)。南部的蛇口街道累计发病率最高(24.08/10万),中部的粤海街道最低(1.40/10万)。南山区本地登革热疫情具有明显的季节性,发病时间分布在8-12月,以10月最多(102例,占61.07%)。空间自相关分析(Moran’s I=0.14,Z=2.72,P=0.003)显示南山区本地登革热分布具有明显地域聚集性,核密度估计显示本地登革热发病有4个聚集区域,分别为福光、渔一、阳光棕榈和西丽社区,空间扫描分析结果显示南山区本地登革热分布主要有3个聚集区,均涉及工地,其中一级聚集区为桃源街道的塘朗和福光社区(RR=11.16),二级聚集区位于西丽街道(RR=4.68),三级聚集区位于蛇口街道(RR=2.49)。结论南山区登革热本地病例分布具有明显的时空特征,工地是高危地区,本地登革热防控应早于8月,并将有限卫生资源向高危区域合理倾斜。

Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of indigenous dengue in Nanshan district of Shenzhen from 2014 to 2019,and identify the high risk areas and distribution of time of indigenous dengue cases in Nanshan district. Methods Descriptive analysis method was used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of indigenous dengue cases in Nanshan district from 2014 to 2019,and identify high risk distribution of time. Geographic Information system(GIS)technology was used to identify high risk areas. Results From 2014 to 2019,there were 167 indigenous dengue cases found in Nanshan district,and the cumulative incidence rate was 11.18/100 000. The ratio of male to female was 1.74∶1,and the main age distribution was 20-<50 years old(115 cases,68.87%). The main occupational distribution was migrant worker(39 cases,23.35%).The Shekou subdistrict a in the southern area had the highest cumulative incidence rate(24.08/100 000),and Yuehai subdistrict in the middle area had the lowest cumulative incidence rate(1.40/100 000). The occurrence of indigenous dengue cases had a characteristic of seasonality,which the high risk time was from Auguest to December,especially in October(102 cases,61.07%). The results of spatial autocorrelation analysis showed the cases were spatial heterogeneity(Moran ’ s I=0.14,Z=2.72,P=0.003). Kernel density estimation showed there were four clusters(Fuguang,Yuyi,Yangguangzonglv and Xili communities). The spatial scanning analysis showed there were three clusters,and they all inclued building site. The most cluster located at Tanglang and Fuguang communities in the area of Taoyuan subdistrict(RR=11.16),the secocd cluster located at the areas of Xili subdistrict(RR=4.68),the third one located at the areas of Shekou subdistrict(RR=2.49). Conclusions Indigenous dengue cases in Nanshan district had obvious characters of space-time change. Building sites were the high-risk areas. The prevention and control of indigenous dengue should be operated earlier than August,and the limited health resources should be reasonably focused on high-risk areas.