基于非参数核密度估计的棉花市场价格波动与风险评估

On Cotton Market Price Fluctuation and Risk Assessment Based on Nonparametric Kernel Density Estimation

棉花是我国重要的战略物资,科学评估棉花市场价格的波动特征与风险概率具有重要意义。文章以2014-2019年我国具有代表性的三种棉花(3128B、2129B、2227B)月度市场价格统计数据为研究对象,利用非参数核密度估计法对不同棉花品种的市场价格波动进行分析,结果表明:三种棉花价格波动走势相似,但2129B级棉花价格整体高于3128B级和2227B级棉花;2129B级棉花价格出现强警风险(红灯区域)的概率高达55.6%,3128B级和2227B级棉花出现强警风险的概率分别为21%和22.8%。

Cotton is an important strategic material in China.It is of great significance to scientifically evaluate the fluctuation char⁃acteristics and risk probability of cotton market price.Based on the monthly market price statistics of three representative cotton va⁃rieties(3128b,2129b and 2227b)in China from 2014 to 2019,this paper analyzes the market price fluctuation of different cotton varieties by using nonparametric kernel density estimation method.The results show that the price fluctuation trend of three kinds of cotton is similar,but the price of 2129B cotton is higher than that of 3128B and 2227B cotton;The probability of strong alarm risk(red light area)of 2129B cotton price is as high as 55.6%.The probability of strong alarm risk of 3128B and 2227B cotton price is 21%and 22.8%respectively.