贵州粮食产能影响因素分析及其趋势预测

Analysis on Influencing Factors of Grain Capacity and Forecasting of Trends in Guizhou

为了了解影响贵州粮食产能的关键因素和贵州粮食生产发展趋势,采用SPSS25.0软件,运用主成分分析法对1978—2018年贵州粮食产能变化的影响因素及其影响程度和影响机理进行分析;同时根据贵州省1978—2018年的粮食产量数据,建立GM(1,1)模型,对贵州省未来30年的粮食总产量进行模拟预测。结果表明:影响贵州粮食产能的5个主要成分可以归纳为农业机械化发展水平、农产品生产成本和粮食作物有效播种面积3个方面;贵州粮食生产2019—2048年将保持稳步增长的态势,2048年预测粮食总产量将达到2 071.2万t,比2018年增长1 011.5万t,年均增长33.7万t。在将来的粮食生产中,应推广农业机械化,有效地应对城市化后"谁来种田"的粮食安全问题,促进农村剩余劳动力的进一步释放;正确引导农民根据土壤地力配方施肥;优化配套灌溉设施,扩大有效灌溉面积。

In order to understand the key factors affecting grain production capacity and the development trend of grain production in Guizhou.SPSS25.0 and principal component analysis were used to analyze the factors affecting the change of grain production capacity in Guizhou from 1978 to 2018,to explore the factors affecting grain production in Guizhou and to judge its influences on grain production in Guizhou,and to analyze its influences mechanism.At the same time,according to the grain yield data of Guizhou Province from 1978 to 2018,a GM(1,1)model was established to simulate and predict the total grain output of Guizhou Province in next 30 years.The results showed that the five main components affecting grain production capacity in Guizhou can be summarized into three aspects including the development level of agricultural mechanization,the production cost of agricultural products and the effective sown area of grain crops.Guizhou grain production will maintain a steady growth trend from 2019 to 2048,and it predictes that the total grain output will reach 20.712 million tons in 2048,an increase of 10.115 million tons over 2018,with an average annual increase of 33.7 tons.In the future grain production,we should promote agricultural mechanization,effectively deal with the food security problem of"who will farm"after urbanization,promote the further release of rural surplus labor,and correctly guide farmers to apply fertilizer according to the soil fertility formula,optimize supporting irrigation facilities and expand effective irrigation area.