基于复杂网络理论的高铁信号系统危险致因评价方法

Complex Network Theory-based Evaluation Method for Hazard Causal Factors of High-speed Railway Signaling Systems

针对现有网络拓扑评价方法难以适应高铁信号系统危险致因网络有向异质特征的问题,形式化定义高铁信号系统危险致因网络;通过邻接矩阵,给出危险致因网络建模方法;利用邻接矩阵,从因果路径长度、因果可达性、致因类型角度,分别定义最短路径矩阵、可达矩阵、致因类型矩阵。在上述各类结构矩阵基础上,提出因果作用强度、因果节点数、因果紧密度、因果中介性等四类新的拓扑特征指标,实现对危险致因的多角度评价。以我国高铁信号系统的典型系统危险及其致因为例,对危险致因进行建模和评价分析。分析过程表明,基于复杂网络结构和拓扑特征的评价方法适用于高铁信号系统的危险致因评价工作。

In view of the difficulty in dealing with the directed and heterogeneous features of hazard causation networks(HCNs)of high-speed railway signaling system by the existing network topology methods,this paper introduced the formal definition of HCNs,and proposed the modeling method for HCNs with an adjacent matrix.Based on the adjacent matrix,a shortest path matrix,a reachability matrix and a type matrix were designed from the perspective of causal path length,the causal reachability and causal factor types.On the basis of the above various structural matrices,some novel topological indicators were proposed to realize multi-angle evaluation of the hazard causation,including the causal strength,the number of causal nodes,the causal closeness and the causal betweenness.Based on the typical system hazard and its causal factors of high-speed railway signaling system,the hazard causation was modeled and evaluated.The analysis process shows that the proposed evaluation method based on the complex network structure and its topological indicators is effective for the evaluation of causal factors of high-speed railway signaling system hazards.