中国耕地经营规模预测

Prediction of cultivated land operation scale in China

农业规模化经营是提高生产效率、资源利用率的有效途径,并能促进农业机械化的发展,降低生产成本,增加农民收入。大部分研究集中在对农业适度规模进行测算,与中国农业多种规模并存的现实不相符,本文拟基于历史统计数据挖掘估计出耕地流转经营规模分布函数,模拟出不同经营规模发展农户数量,分析不同经营模式下的规模分布情况。研究结果表明:(1)到2025年我国耕地经营面积超过6.67 hm^(2)的农户数将达到412万户,经营面积超过20 hm^(2)的农户数达到132万户,经营面积超过33.33 hm^(2)的农户数76万户,经营面积超过66.67 hm^(2)的农户数将达到34万户。(2)家庭农场将成为规模经营主体的主流,家庭经营农场将达到1292.38万户,经营的耕地面积最多,占到总耕地面积的39%。合作社数量较少,仅占总农户数的0.29%,但由于平均经营规模较大,合作社经营的耕地面积占总耕地面积的27%。规模化经营成为农业经营主要方式,规模化经营的耕地总量达到70%。

Large-scale agricultural operation is an effective way to improve production efficiency and resource utilization rate,which can promote the development of agricultural mechanization,reduce production costs and increase farmers income.Most of the studies have focused on the estimation and calculation of the moderate agricultural scale,which is not consistent with the reality of the coexistence of multiple agricultural scales in China.This paper attempts to estimate the distribution function of cultivated land transfer operation scale based on the historical statistical data,simulate the number of farm households with different scale of operation development and analyze the distribution of the scale under different operation models.The research results show that:(1)By 2025,the number of farm households with cultivated land operation area over 6.67 hm 2 will reach 3.57 million,the number of farmer households with cultivated land operation area over 20 hm 2 will reach 1.09 million,the number of farmer households with cultivated land operation area over 33.33 hm 2 will reach 597500,and the number of farmer households with cultivated land operation area over 66.66 hm 2 will reach 223300 in China.(2)Family farms will become the mainstream of the scale operation entities.Family operation farms will reach 11.46 million,operating the largest area of cultivated land which account for 39%of the total cultivated area.The number of cooperatives is few,accounting for only 0.22%of the total number of farm households.However,due to the relatively large average operation scale,the cultivated land area managed by the cooperatives accounts for 27%of the total cultivated land area.Large-scale operation has become the main way of agricultural operation,with the large-scale operation of total cultivated land reaching 70%.