缅甸政局变动的影响及东盟建设性参与

The Impact of Political Changes in Myanmar and Constructive Intervention by AS EAN

2021年2月,缅甸军方以民盟政府选举舞弊为由强力接管国家政权,再次使缅甸政局和东南亚区域安全形势面临严重的不确定性风险。本文简要回顾2020年缅甸大选的基本概况,在阐述军方与民盟权力博弈新态势的基础上,指出两个平行政府的合法性争夺趋于白热化、公民抗命运动加剧社会动荡、国内武装冲突趋于“全面化”,是军方接管政权后缅甸政局持续动荡的新特征。缅甸危机对东盟的深刻影响体现在其中心地位、危机协调与管控能力以及东盟经济一体化三个层面,因此迫切需要东盟建设性参与缅甸国内和解进程,深度介入缅甸危机管控,并多措并举提高地区经济一体化水平。

In February 2021,the Myanmar defense force took over state power by force from the NLD government for the alleged election fraud,once again posing great uncertainties to the political situation in Myanmar and the security landscape in Southeast Asia.On the basis of a brief retrospect of the basic facts of the 2020 election in Myanmar,this article has expounded the new trends of game between the military and the NLD regime in Myanmar,based on which to point out the competition for legitimacy between the two parallel governments is becoming increasingly intense,public protests or civil disobedience have intensified social turmoil,and domestic armed conflicts tend to become"nationwide".These are the new features of political instability in Myanmar after the military seized power. Myanmar crisis exerts a profound impact on ASEAN's centrality,its crisis coordination and management capacity and its economic integration.As a result,it is urgently needed that ASEAN constructively intervene in the domestic reconciliation process and get deeply involved in crisis management and control in Myanmar,and elevate regional economic integration through combined measures.