自然灾害财政成本估算:基于面板数据的PVAR实证

Financial cost estimation of natural disasters:an empirical study of PVAR based on panel data

自然灾害的发生往往导致财政支出增加和财政收入减少,是影响国家财政收支平衡的一个不容忽略的因素,自然灾害对财政收支的影响尚缺乏深入的理论阐释和基于实证数据的检验。依据1990—2018年中国31省份省际面板数据建立面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型,量化自然灾害的财政成本,并考察了自然灾害对财政支出和收入的动态影响机制。进一步分析中,运用可解决门槛变量内生性问题的动态面板门槛模型探究了政府应急财政支出的最优规模。研究表明:①总体来看,平均每年自然灾害造成的财政成本为1.119%,自然灾害对财政支出具有滞后正向效应,对财政收入具有滞后负向效应。②自然灾害财政成本具有区域异质性。具体而言,平均每年东北地区财政成本为0.89%,东部地区财政成本为-2.63%,中部地区财政成本为1.4%,西部地区财政成本为2.75%。③进一步分析得出,政府自然灾害应急财政支出最优规模为0.095%。分经济区域来看,除东部地区门槛效应不显著外,东北、中部和西部地区政府应急财政支出最优规模分别为0.0903%、0.108%和0.196%,远低于自然灾害财政成本,需要探寻放大应急财政资金规模的融资工具。据此,从建立自然灾害基金制度,因地制宜搭建自然灾害财政成本风险融资工具框架,构建融入保险机制的新型灾害风险管理体系等方面提出相关政策建议,以期为政府改进公共服务、创新政府管理、推进我国应急管理体系和能力现代化提供支撑。

The occurrence of natural disasters often leads to the increase of fiscal expenditure and the decrease of fiscal revenue,and is an important factor that cannot be ignored in the balance of national fiscal revenue and expenditure.However,in-depth theoretical interpretation and empirical data-based test concerning the impact of natural disasters on fiscal revenue and expenditure are still insufficient.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 1990 to 2018,this study established the panel vector autoregressive(PVAR)model,quantified the financial cost of natural disasters based on the empirical model for the first time,and investigated the dynamic impact mechanism of natural disasters on fiscal expenditure and revenue.In the further analysis,the dynamic panel threshold model which can solve the endogenous problem of threshold variables was used to explore the optimal scale of government emergency fiscal expenditure.The results showed that:①The average annual financial cost caused by natural disasters was 1.119%on the whole,and natural disasters had a lag positive effect on financial expenditure and a lag negative effect on fiscal revenue.②The financial cost of natural disasters had regional heterogeneity.Specifically,the average annual financial costs of the northeast,eastern,central and western regions were 0.89%,-2.63%,-1.4%and 2.75%respectively.③Further analysis showed that the optimal scale of government emergency financial expenditure for natural disasters was 0.095%.In terms of economic regions,except for the threshold effect in the eastern region,the optimal scales of government emergency financial expenditure in the northeast,central and western regions were 0.0903%,0.108%and 0.196%respectively,which was far lower than the financial cost of natural disasters,so it is necessary to explore financing tools to enlarge the scale of emergency financial funds.Therefore,this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions from the aspects of establishing natural disaster fund system,building the financial cost risk financing tool framework of natural disasters according to local conditions,and constructing a new disaster risk management system integrated with insurance mechanism,so as to provide important support for the government to improve public services,innovate government management,and promote the modernization of China’s emergency management system and capacity.