国际经贸规则重构中美国的政策两难与发展趋势探讨

Discussion on the Policy Dilemma and Development Trend of the United States in the Reconstruction of International Economic and Trade Rules

正在进行中的国际经贸规则重构背后实质为国际经济新秩序之争、世界经济格局之争,影响深远。既有规则的效应大幅下降、规则自身的不足以及美国的推动,是国际经贸规则重构的主要原因。然而,美国在国际经贸规则重构中面临着五大政策两难,包括打破既有国际经贸规则和重构新规则之间的政策两难、对外政治与对外经济政策之间的两难、对外经济与国内经济政策之间的两难、国内利益集团之间的政策协调两难、丁伯根法则两难等。后期美国将采取较为理性和务实的多领域平衡和折中政策,既延续以往某些政策,也会做出适当调整,以多方有效合作的方式重构国际经贸规则。

The essence of ongoing restructuring of international economic and trade rules is the dispute over the new international economic order and the world economic pattern,which has a far-reaching impact. The main reasons for the reconstruction of international economic and trade rules are the sharp decline of the effect,the inadequacy of the rules themselves and the promotion of the United States. However,the United States faces five policy dilemmas in the reconstruction of international economic and trade rules,including the policy dilemma between breaking the original international economic and trade rules and reconstructing the new rules,the dilemma between foreign politics and foreign economic policy,the dilemma between foreign economy and domestic economic policy,the dilemma of policy coordination between domestic interest groups,and the dilemma of Tinbergen’s law. The United States will adopt a more rational and pragmatic multi-faceted balanced and compromise policy. Some policies in the past will be continued and appropriate adjustments will be made. Reconstruct international economic and trade rules by means of effective multi-cooperation.