“一带一路”背景下我国逆梯度对外直接投资的产业结构升级效应——基于技术进步路径的理论与分析

Effect of Outward Foreign Direct Investment in Belt-and-Road Economies on China’s Industrial Structure Upgrade:Based on the Path of Technological Progress

随着“一带一路”建设的不断深化,中国对沿线国家或地区的技术寻求型直接投资稳步推进。为了揭示其产业结构升级效应,基于“发展中国家逆梯度直接投资-技术进步”和“技术进步-产业结构升级”两个环节,在理论层面上阐述技术进步在其中的关键作用,并采用我国内地除西藏以外的30个省份2004—2019年的面板数据给出经验证据。结果表明:目前我国产业结构高级化、合理化、均衡化和生态化趋向明显且具有空间差异性,我国对“一带一路”沿线经济体的逆梯度直接投资和技术进步水平均对自身产业结构升级具有正向作用。“一带一路”背景下,在我国逆梯度对外直接投资的产业结构升级效应中,技术进步的中介作用显著并呈现出空间异质性特征,在我国东部地区最为明显,中部地区次之,西部地区最弱。

As the Belt and Road Initiative deepening,China’s engagement in technology sourcing FDI in Belt and Road economies has advanced steadily.At the level of theoretical analysis,the key role of technological progress is illustrated from the two links of "developing countries’ reverse gradient OFDI-technological progress of the home country"and "technological progress of the home country-industrial upgrading of the home country";At the level of empirical test,by the study of the panel data of 30 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions other than Tibet in China from 2004 to 2019,it is found that China’s industrial structure has a leap forward in the trend of industrial upgrading and possesses spatial heterogeneity,China’s inverse gradient OFDI in Belt and Road economies and its own technological progress both have a positive effect on industrial structure upgrading,and the technological progress in China has a significant intermediary effect on the OFDI of developed economies along the Belt and Road Initiative to promote the industrial upgrading effect of the home country,and features spatial heterogeneity.It is most prominent in the eastern region of China,followed by the central region and the western region.