中国与欧亚经济联盟地缘经济关系测评——基于欧氏距离-灰色关联度两步法的应用

Evaluation of Geo-economic Relationship between China and Eurasian Economic Union:Based on the Application of“Euclidean Distance-Grey Relational Analysis”Two-step Method

以经济“全球化”与“逆全球化”交织为背景,以“一带一盟”建设对接为契机,运用欧氏距离-灰色关联度两步法,分析2004—2019年中国与欧亚经济联盟地缘经济关系。结果表明:中国与欧亚经济联盟地缘经济关系具有典型竞合型特征,总体呈现竞争与合作交替出现的胶着状态和动态平衡。空间上以中国-俄罗斯地缘经济关系为主导影响因素,时间上伴随世界经济的繁荣与衰退,交替出现地缘经济合作与竞争的演变规律。其中,繁荣有序的全球经济促进双方地缘经济合作,而衰退动荡的经济环境则促使地缘经济主体各自为政,凸显竞争型地缘经济关系特征。双方地缘经济关系影响因素关联序依次为贸易依存度、固定资本形成率、劳动失业率、一二产业比率。

Based on the intertwined background of“globalization”and“anti-globalization”of the world econ-omy,taking the opportunity of“The Belt&The Alliance”construction docking,this paper uses the two-step meth-od of Euclidean distance-grey relational analysis,evaluates the geo-economic relationship between China and Eura-sian Economic Union(EAEU).According to the data of 2004-2019,from four perspectives of industrial struc-ture,capital,labor force and commodity trade,firstly measures the geo-economic relationship type between the two sides,and secondly analyses the correlation degree of each influencing factor.The results show that geo-economic relationship between the two sides present the characteristics of co-opetition type overall.And the development law of geo-economic cooperation or competition is accompanied by prosperity or recession of the world economy respec-tively.That is,the prosperous and orderly global economy promotes the geo-economic cooperation between the two.sides,while the declining and turbulent economic environment leads the geo-economic entities to act independently and highlights the characteristics of competitive geo economic relations.The sequence of influencing factors is the commodity trade dependence,fixed capital formation rate,labor unemployment rate,primary-secondary industry rate.