中国城市房价波动扩散等级传递效应研究

Hierarchical Transmission Effect of China's Urban Housing Price Fluctuation Diffusion

基于城市等级视角,借鉴物理学势能概念并结合我国房地产特点引申出房地产市场势能,包括价格势能、政策势能和信息势能,分析城市房价波动扩散“等级传递效应”形成机制。利用70个大中城市房价数据,在线性-非线性Granger因果关系分析框架下进行验证。结果表明:我国城市房价波动扩散具有方向性,由高等级城市向低等级城市传递,即城市房价波动扩散存在等级传递效应;低等级城市房价波动不能引起高等级城市房价波动,等级传递效应具有非对称性;等级传递效应是从空间垂直维度刻画城市房价波动扩散特征,是对空间水平维度波纹效应的补充,二者结合能够更加立体深刻地揭示城市房价波动扩散规律。

Drawing enlightenments from the concept of physical potential energy,combined with the reality of China's real estate market,from the perspective of urban hierarchy,the article proposed the "real estate market potential energy",including price potential energy,policy potential energy and information potential energy,and analyzed the formation mechanism of hierarchical transmission effect of urban housing price fluctuation diffusion.Based on the data of 70 large and medium-sized cities,it was verified in the framework of linear-nonlinear Granger causality analysis.The results show that:Firstly,the urban volatility diffusion has directionality,which is trans-ferred from high-level cities to low-level cities,that is,there is hierarchical transmission effect in the diffusion of urban housing price fluctuations in China.Secondly,the price fluctuation in low-grade cities can not cause the price fluctuation of high-level cities,that is,the hierarchy transmission effect is not symmetrical.Thirdly,the hier-archical transmission effect is to depict the characteristics of urban housing price fluctuation diffusion from the verti-cal dimension of space,which is a supplement to the spatial horizontal dimension ripple effect.The combination of the two can reveal the diffusion law of urban house price fluctuation more deeply.