需求侧改革下的货币政策时变效应及搭配——基于构建“双循环”格局视角

Time Varying Effect and Collocation of Monetary Policy Under Demand Side Reform——Based on the Construction of“Double Circulation”Pattern

基于“双循环”新发展格局构建视角,通过实证研究发现,从提振消费者信心角度来看,由于总量数量型货币政策工具和结构数量型货币政策工具存在时滞性且短期正向效果弱于中长期,故可以搭配相对紧缩的总量价格型货币政策工具,同时也可以通过结构价格型货币政策工具的短期操作产生持续性正向促进作用来逆向提振居民消费信心;从民间投资增长来看,宽松的总量数量型工具和紧缩的总量价格型工具分别通过资金供给和控制物价在短期产生较强的促进作用,但在长期都会抑制民间投资增长,故在长期应做出调整。同时结构型货币政策工具也表现出长期影响的抑制性,故在当前的后疫情时期可以适当增加结构型工具的操作频率来持续拉动民间投资。

Based on the perspective of“double cycle”new development pattern construction,the empirical study finds that:from the perspective of boosting consumer confidence,because of the time lag between the total quantity monetary policy tool and the structural quantity monetary policy tool,and the short-term positive effect is weaker than that in the medium and long term,it can be matched with the relatively tight total price monetary policy tool,but also through the structural price;from the perspective of private investment growth,loose quantitative instruments and tight price instruments have a strong promoting effect in the short term through capital supply and price control respectively,but in the long term will inhibit the growth of private investment,so it should be done in the long term Out of adjustment.At the same time,structural monetary policy tools also show long-term inhibitory effect,so in the current post epidemic period,we can appropriately increase the operation frequency of structural tools to continuously stimulate private investment.