宁波市本地三维生态足迹时空演变及驱动机制研究

Research of spatial and temporal evolution and driving mechanism of local three-dimensional ecological footprint in Ningbo

生态足迹研究有利于揭示人类活动对区域生态环境影响,对统筹经济发展与生态环境保护有重要意义。以2006—2016年宁波社会经济面板数据为基础,测算本地生态足迹与生态承载力,并进一步计算足迹深度、足迹广度等指数,利用偏最小二乘回归法分析生态足迹动态演变的驱动机制。研究发现:1)宁波市当前发展方式对资源能源和生态环境产生巨大压力。人均生态足迹经历先增后减的变化,人均生态承载力为逐年增加态势,但与人均生态足迹间存在较大差距,使得人均生态赤字仍较高;2)宁波市自然资本存量消耗远超资本流量更新,自然资本的大量消耗将会影响资本流量更新,对今后可持续发展带来严重阻碍。这是由于宁波市自身自然资源禀赋较差,当前产业结构需要消耗大量资源能源;3)产业发展与污染物排放等是导致生态足迹增加的主导因素,而科技水平与居民生活水平则对生态足迹有抑制作用。宁波市今后应加速产业结构的调整与升级,淘汰落后高耗能产业,大力发展绿色循环经济,减少各类污染物产生,并提升污染物处理能力。研究结果对宁波市经济社会发展与生态环境保护有参考意义,可丰富我国典型地域生态足迹研究案例。

The study of ecological footprint can reveal the impact of human activities on regional ecological environment,and is of great significance to balance economic development and ecological environment protection.Based on the social and economic panel data of Ningbo from 2006 to 2016,this paper calculated the local ecological footprint,ecological carrying capacity,the index of footprint depth and footprint size,then analyzed the driving mechanism of the dynamic evolution of ecological footprint by Partial Least Square regression.The results show that the current development of Ningbo has a huge pressure on resources,energy and ecological environment.The per capita ecological footprint has experienced the change of increased firstly and then decreased.Although the per capita ecological carrying capacity increased year by year,there is a big gap between it and the per capita ecological footprint,which makes the per capita ecological deficit still high.The consumption of natural capital stock in Ningbo far exceeds the renewal of capital flow,and the large consumption of natural capital will affect the renewal of capital flow,which will impede the sustainable development of Ningbo.Due to the poor natural resource endowment of Ningbo,the current industrial structure needs to consume a lot of resources and energy.Industrial development and pollutant discharge are the leading factors that lead to the increase of ecological footprint,while the level of science and technology and the living standard of residents have a restraining effect on ecological footprint.In the future,Ningbo should accelerate the adjustment and upgrade of industrial structure,eliminate backward and high energy consuming industries,vigorously develop green circular economy,reduce the generation of various pollutants,and improve the capacity of pollutant treatment.The results of the study are significance for the realization of economic development and ecological environment protection in Ningbo,and have certain academic value for enriching the research of ecological footprint in China.