云南省地方政府债务风险水平测算

Estimation of the Risk Level of Local Government Debt in Yunnan Province

十九大报告中提出去杠杆以推进供给侧结构性改革,要求各地政府全力防控和化解地方政府债务风险,坚决避免政府债务风险事件爆发。随着疫情防控态势趋稳,经济逐步回归原路径,地方政府债务风险再次成为中央重点关注的问题。本文梳理了近五年云南省经济发展、财政收支、债务规模及结构等变动,借助主成分分析思想,对衡量政府债务风险的单一指标进行赋权,测算出更全面的综合性债务风险指标。

The report to the 19th National Congress of the CPC calls for deleveraging and calls on local governments to make every effort to control local government debt risks and resolutely avoid the outbreak of debt crisis.With the control of the epidemic and the economy gradually returning to the original path,the risk of local government debt has once again become the focus of the central government.This paper sorts out the changes of economic development,fiscal revenue and expenditure,debt scale and structure of Yunnan Province in the recent five years,and under the principal component analysis(PCA),this paper gives weight to every single index to measure the government debt risk,so as to calculate a more comprehensive debt risk index.