基于广义信度马尔科夫模型的跨境物流信息动态分析

Dynamic Analysis of Cross-border Logistics Information Based on Generalized Reliability Markov Model

基于订单信息传递及接收过程的状态转换,构建了基于马尔科夫链的物流订单信息精确有效度计量分析模型,并引入广义信度中的辨识框架概念,运用定量分析方法分析了基于信息动态视角的订单信息各环节的精确有效度,讨论订单信息精确、模糊和滞后三种状态之间的转换概率。最后,通过数值仿真验证了模型的有效性,研究结果表明:在稳态下,订单信息接收处于“精确”状态的概率要远大于处于“模糊”和“延迟”状态的概率,并且订单信息接收过程中每个环节的精确有效度均在0.9以上,说明当前订单信息接收过程中的精确有效度很高。

Based on the state transition of the order information transmission and receiving process,a Markov chain-based measurement analysis model of the accuracy and validity of the logistics order information is constructed,and the concept of identification framework in the generalized reliability is introduced,and the quantitative analysis method is used to analyze the information based on the dynamic perspective.Discuss the accuracy and validity of each link of the order information,discuss the transition probability between the three states of order information accuracy,vagueness and lag.Finally,the validity of the model is verified by numerical simulation.The research results show that in the steady state,the probability of receiving the order information in the“accurate”state is much greater than the probability of being in the“fuzzy”and“delayed”state,and the order information is received the accuracy and validity of each link in the process are above 0.9,indicating that the accuracy and validity of the current order information receiving process is very high.