互联网普及推动跨境电商增长的门槛效应研究

Research on Internet Penetration and Threshold Effect Promoting Cross-border E-commerce Growth

本文基于2009—2018年“一带一路”沿线61个国家的面板数据,运用面板门槛模型,以经济发展水平为门槛变量,互联网普及率为门槛解释变量,研究结果表明:互联网普及与跨境电商规模增长之间具有非线性关系,在不同经济发展水平下,互联网普及对跨境电商规模增长的影响呈现差异化;互联网普及对跨境电商具有单一门槛效应,当经济发展水平不大于门槛值时,互联网普及能够有效地促进跨境电商规模的增长;当经济发展水平大于门槛值时,其促进作用显著增强;经济发展水平的门槛效应具有显著的异质性,除发达经济体具有双重门槛效应外,其余经济体均具有单一门槛效应,且发达经济体、转型经济体和发展中经济体的门槛值呈现出递减趋势。

Based on the panel data of 61 countries along the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)from 2009 to 2018,the panel threshold model is used,with economic development level as the threshold variable and Internet penetration rate as the threshold explanatory variable.The results show that:(1)There is a nonlinear relationship between Internet penetration and cross-border e-commerce scale growth,and the impact of Internet penetration on cross-border e-commerce growth is different under different economic development levels;(2)Internet penetration has a single threshold effect on cross-border e-commerce.When the economic development level is less than or equal to the threshold value,Internet penetration can effectively promote cross-border e-commerce;when the economic development level exceeds the threshold value,its promotion effect is significantly enhanced;(3)The threshold effect of economic development level has obvious heterogeneity.Except developed economies with the double threshold effect,other economies have single threshold effect,and the threshold values of developed economies,transitional ones and developing ones are decreasing.