西部地区城镇化对能源消费的门槛效应研究

Research on Threshold Effect of Urbanization on Energy Consumption in Western Region

为促进西部地区实现绿色集约的新型城镇化,在分析城镇化对能源消费影响的基础上,采用2002-2017年西部地区11个省市自治区的省级面板数据,以城镇居民消费为门槛变量构建面板门槛回归模型,探讨了西部地区城镇化与能源消费间的非线性关系。研究发现:城镇化对能源消费存在显著的双门槛效应,城镇居民消费门槛值分别为6311.65元和9068.08元;随着城镇居民消费水平的提高,西部地区城镇化与能源消费间的负相关关系在逐渐减弱。基于上述结果提出相应建议:提高西部地区各省份的产业支撑能力和经济的综合实力;大力推进城市群的建设,同时抓好中、小城镇的发展,加快西部地区城镇化进程;优化能源供需结构,大力推广清洁绿色能源的使用。

In order to promote the realization of green and intensive new urbanization in the western region,based on the analysis of the impact of urbanization on energy consumption,this paper uses the provincial panel data of 11 provinces,cities and autonomous regions in the western region from 2002 to 2017,and constructs a panel threshold regression model with urban residents'consumption as the threshold variable to explore the nonlinear relationship between urbanization and energy consumption in the western region.The results show that urbanization has a significant double threshold effect on energy consumption,with the consumption thresholds of urban residentsbeing 6,311.65 yuan and 9,068.08 yuan respectively.With the improvement of urban residents'consumption level,the negative correlation between urbanization and energy consumption in the western region is gradually weakening.Based on the above results,the corresponding suggestions are put forward:to improve the industrial support capacity and comprehensive economic strength of the provinces in the western region;vigorously promote the construction of urban agglomerations,at the same time do a good job in the development of small and medium-sized towns,accelerate the urbanization process in the western region;optimize the structure of energy supply and demand and vigorously promote the use of clean and green energy.