个人所得税的减税策略及其效应研究

Study on Tax Reduction Strategy of Individual Income Tax and Its Effects

在世界减税浪潮的影响下,我国个人所得税减税是必然趋势,研究如何实现有效率的减税具有重要理论及现实意义。提高免征额和降低累进税率两种减税方式哪种更有效?本文在动态随机一般均衡框架下构建了非线性所得税模型,运用贝叶斯方法估计了我国的免征额和累进税率,对比分析了提高免征额与降低累进税率两种个税减税方式的经济及福利效应。研究发现:经济增长并不意味着社会福利的增加,以经济效率为目标时,降低累进税率更有效;以福利效应为目标时,提高免征额并同时配合增加税率累进性更有效,且福利模拟显示,当前免征额和累进税率均低于最优政策组合,有一定的提升空间。本文的研究为个人所得税税率的结构性调整提供了理论参考。

Under the influence of the wave of tax reduction in the world, the tax reduction of individual income tax in China is an inevitable trend, and it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study how to achieve efficient tax reduction. Which tax cut is more effective: raising the exemption or lowering the progressive rate? In this paper, a nonlinear income tax model is constructed under the framework of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium. The Bayesian method is used to estimate the tax exemption and progressive tax rate in China, and the economic and welfare effects of raising the tax exemption and reducing the progressive tax rate are compared and analyzed. It is found that economic growth does not mean the increase of social welfare, and it is more effective to reduce the progressive tax rate when aiming at economic efficiency. It is more effective to increase the amount of tax exemption and increase the progressivity of tax rate when aiming at the welfare effect, and the welfare simulation shows that the current amount of tax exemption and the progressivity of tax rate are both lower than the optimal policy combination, so there is some room for improvement. The research of this paper provides a theoretical reference for the structural adjustment of individual income tax rate.