信息—价格双粘性部门异质性与中国产业经济波动

Information-Prices Dual-stickiness Sector Heterogeneity and China′s Industrial Economic Volatility

本文以价格粘性理论为基础,构建了包含信息粘性与非信息粘性的产业菲利普斯曲线方程,利用产业中观数据测算并验证了我国三大产业中信息—价格双粘性问题,阐释了产业信息—价格双粘性特征对产业核心经济变量及福利损失的影响。结果显示:1.我国第一、第二产业具有信息—价格双粘性特征,不仅具有价格粘性,同时还具有信息粘性特征。2.不同产业信息粘性与非信息粘性对价格粘性的影响不同。第一产业中信息粘性对价格粘性的影响为80%,非信息粘性为20%,第二产业中非信息粘性对价格粘性的影响为47%-62%,信息粘性对价格粘性为38%-53%,第三产业中,非信息粘性对价格粘性的影响为100%。3.产业的信息—价格双粘性特征对产业经济变量及福利损失具有较大影响,其会增强产业核心经济变量的波动性,放大外生冲击对宏观经济变量的影响。本文的研究有助于信息粘性理论的深化与拓展,也从另一个视角为我国产业经济的周期性波动提供了新解释。

Based on the traditional price stickiness theory, this paper constructs the industrial Phillips curve including information stickiness and non-information stickiness, calculates and verifies the problem of the information-price dual-stickiness characteristics of the three industries in China by using the industries data, and explains the influence of information-price dual-stickiness on industrial economic variables and welfare loss of the industry. The results show that: First, China′s primary and secondary industries have the characteristics of information-price dual-stickiness, not only price stickiness, but also information stickiness. Second, information stickiness and non-information stickiness of different industries have different effects on price stickiness. In primary industry, the impact of information stickiness on price stickiness is 80%, and that of non-information stickiness is 20%. In secondary industry, the impact of non-information stickiness on price stickiness is from 47% to 62%, and that of information stickiness is between 38% and 53%. In tertiary industry, the impact of non-information stickiness on price stickiness is 100%. Third, the information-price dual-stickiness of industry has a great influence on industrial economic variables and welfare loss, which can enhance the volatility of industrial core economic variables and amplify the impact of exogenous shocks on macroeconomic variables. The research of this paper is helpful to deepen and expand the theory of information stickiness, and also provides a new explanation for the cyclical fluctuations of China′s industrial economy from another perspective.