城市轨道交通网络化运营背景下突发大客流预测研究

Study on the prediction of sudden large passenger flow under the background of urban rail transit network operation

为提高突发大客流预测的准确性,设计了一个城市轨道交通网络化运营背景下突发大客流预测方法。首先建立起客流指标体系,然后对客流分布预测影响因素分析,最后根据城市轨道交通系统受不同因素影响的特点,采用多时序处理方法,实现对复杂的非线性轨道交通客流的预测。实验对比结果表明,此次研究的城市轨道交通网络化运营背景下突发大客流预测方法在稳定客流预测与随机客流预测上,都具备较高的预测准确度,并且,在很大程度上减少了突发大客流预测时间。

In order to improve the accuracy of sudden large passenger flow forecasting, a forecasting method of sudden large passenger flow under the background of urban rail transit network operation is designed.Firstly, the passenger flow index system is established, and then the influencing factors of passenger flow distribution prediction are analyzed.Finally, according to the characteristics of urban rail transit system affected by different factors, the multi time series processing method is adopted to realize the prediction of complex nonlinear rail transit passenger flow.The experimental results show that, under the background of urban rail transit network operation, the prediction method of sudden large passenger flow has high prediction accuracy in both stable passenger flow prediction and random passenger flow prediction, and greatly reduces the prediction time of sudden large passenger flow.