双循环背景下中国双向FDI协调发展水平及其影响因素研究——基于PVAR模型的测度和动态面板模型的实证分析

Research on the Coordinative Development Level and Influencing Factors of China’s Inter-provincial Two-way FDI——Based on the Measurement of PVAR Model and Empirical Analysis of Dynamic Panel

坚持"引进来"和"走出去"并重,构建IFDI和OFDI双向协调发展机制,是实现我国在更高水平上开放,国内国际双循环互相促进新发展格局的一个重要举措。本文基于2003-2017年中国省际面板数据,运用PVAR方法在验证IFDI和OFDI之间存在互动效应的基础之上,利用物理容量耦合系统模型测度了双向FDI协调发展水平,并对影响双向FDI协调发展水平的因素进行实证分析。结果表明:中国省际双向FDI之间存在显著的互动协调发展关系,且不同省份之间差异明显;中国双向FDI协调发展水平整体呈现上升趋势,但总体上还处于较低水平阶段,还有很大的提升空间;中国双向FDI协调发展水平呈现明显的空间聚集现象,双向FDI协调发展水平较高的省份集中分布在东部沿海地区,总体呈现"东高西低,南高北低"的布局,在我国存在时间和空间上的双重不平衡发展现象。此外,中国省际双向FDI协调发展水平存在滞后效应,技术创新对双向FDI协调发展水平具有显著的促进作用,同时也受制度质量、产业结构、研发投入、政府支持、经济发展水平、开放程度等因素的影响,且这些因素对中国省际双向FDI协调发展水平的影响方向有所不同。

The positive interaction between"bringing in"and"going out"and building a two-way coordinated development mechanism for IFDI and OFDI is an important measure to realize for China’s opening at a higher level and to build a new development pattern in which domestic and international circulations reinforcing each other and promotes high-quality economic development.Based on China’s provincial panel data from 2003 to 2017,this paper uses the PVAR method to verify the interaction effect between IFDI and OFDI,and uses Capacity System Model in the physical to measure the degree of two-way FDI coordinated development and conduct an empirical analysis on the influencing factors of China’s two-way FDI coordinated development.The research results show that there is a significant interactive and coordinated development relationship between IFDI and OFDI in China,and there are obvious differences between different provinces and different regions.The level of China’s two-way FDI coordinated development is showing an upward trend,but the overall level is too low,and there is still a lot of room for improvement.From the perspective of the evolution of spatial pattern,there are apparent agglomeration effect in space of China’s two-way FDI coordinated development with an increasing tendency.The relatively high level of coordinated development of two-way FDI is concentrated in the coastal areas,showing a layout of"high in the east and low in the west,high in the south and low in the north".Therefore,the level of China’s two-way FDI interactive development has a dual imbalanced development phenomenon in time and space.In addition,the level of China’s two-way FDI interactive development has a lag effect,and technological innovation has a significant role in promoting the two-way FDI coordinated development level.It is also subject to institutional quality,industrial structure,R&D level,government support,economic development level,and degree of openness,which have different influences on the level of China’s inter-provincial two-way FDI.