1948—2018年国际河流跨境水冲突的时空演化规律

Spatio-temporal dynamics of international freshwater conflict events and relations from 1948 to 2018

随着全球气候变化和人类社会经济高速发展,水资源供需矛盾日益突出,国际河流流域跨境水冲突不断加剧,其时空演化规律成为当前跨学科研究的热点和难点。为此,从水冲突“事件—关系”视角,对1948—2018年间全球跨境水冲突的时空演化规律进行系统分析发现:①1948—2018年全球跨境水冲突规模总体呈非单调波动增长态势,在1987年前后发生显著突变,表现出兼具趋势性、突变性和波动性等多维特征的非单调动力过程;②全球跨境水冲突事件以围绕水文干预和资源权属争夺的低强度事件为主,大坝等水利工程建设引发的冲突显著增加,南亚、西亚和东非地区成为主导全球跨境水冲突趋势演化的“序参量”;③全球跨境水冲突呈现由单中心向多中心格局转变的空间扩散趋势,但“北多南少、东多西少、相对集中”的总体不均衡格局基本锁定,形成以30°N为中心、横跨南亚—中亚—西亚—东非高水资源压力区的水冲突密集带;④国家间跨境水冲突关系趋于普遍化、复杂化和网络化,发育多个流域性网络社团,但水冲突关系的“马太效应”和极化分布特征持续显著,产生“路径锁定”效应;水冲突“规模—强度”关系存在一定的空间错配。

With global climate change and the rapid development of human society and economy,the contradiction between water supply and demand has become increasingly prominent in recent years,and the freshwater conflicts in international river basins have intensified,which has aroused widespread concern in academia.Here we analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics of global freshwater conflicts(GFCs)over the last 70 years from the"eventrelations"perspective,and establish a spatio-temporal database of GFCs from 1948 to 2018 based on data mining method and spatial analysis.The results show that:(1)The evolution of GFCs is a non-monotonic dynamic process with multi-dimensional characteristics of trend,mutation and volatility.The GFCs showed a general trend of fluctuating growth,with an obvious sudden change around 1987.(2)The GFCs are mainly composed of low-intensity conflicts,and the hydrological intervention and contention for resource ownership are the focus of conflicts.The number of conflicts caused by the construction of dams and other water conservancy projects increases significantly.South Asia,West Asia and East Africa are the leading forces driving the evolution of GFCs.(3)The pattern of GFCs has changed from singlecenter to multi-center,and there is a clear trend of spatial spread.However,the overall distribution pattern with more conflicts in the northern and eastern hemispheres and the pattern with less conflicts in the southern and western hemispheres is relatively stable.Along 30-degree north latitude,a dense zone of freshwater conflicts covering high water stress basins in South Asia,Central Asia,West Asia,and East Africa has formed.(4)International freshwater conflict has gradually become more ubiquitous,complicated and networked,and the basin communities of freshwater conflict network have increased significantly.But the"Matthew effect"of freshwater conflicts among countries are obvious,and its polarized distribution pattern is relatively stable.A"path-locking"effect has been formed among the major conflictive countries.There is a certain spatial mismatch between the quantity relationship and intensity relationship of GFCs.