从预期到落地:承包地确权如何影响农户土地转出决策?

From Anticipation to Implementation:How Does Farmland Rights Confirmation Affect Farmers5 Farmland Transfer?

在中国的经济转型中,保持土地承包关系稳定一直被认为是促进农村劳动力迁移就业和土地流转的关键。承包地确权是保障承包关系稳定的重要手段,然而在其快速推广期间中国土地流转增速却开始放缓。本文认为这主要源于确权登记颁证作为权利界定与确认的过程,在实施过程中存在“不稳定”因素并阶段性降低农户的稳定性预期:一些农民可能会担心村庄借机进行土地调整或担心确认的地块数及“四至”与实际不符而失去部分土地。本文利用江苏省784个农户2010一2017年的面板数据评估了确权实施各阶段对农户土地转出决策的影响差异。研究发现,启动确权的预期会显著抑制农户的土地转出,确权颁证完成后土地转出仅有所恢复,并没有表现出显著促进转出的效果。前者意味着保持承包关系稳定有利于促进土地转出;后者可能源于确权政策的落地一方面通过提升地权稳定性促进土地转出,而另一方面通过强化“产权地理垄断”不利于组织依赖土地置换的连片集中流转,使地租处于零散流转的低水平从而抑制了土地转出。从实现资源顺畅流转和配置的角度,本文建议,在二轮承包即将到期之际应加强承包期“再延长30年”的宣传和落实,稳定农户的地权预期;同时,也需要在“三权分置”思想指导下继续深化土地产权制度改革,有效治理后确权时代连片集中流转中可能会出现的“产权地理垄断”问题,提升农业生产在地块层面的规模经济效率。

In China's economic transformation,maintaining the stability of famland contract relationship has always been regardedas the key to promoting rural labor migration and farmland transfer.The famland righnts confirmation is an important means toensure the stability of the contractual relationship.However,during its rapid implementation,the growth rate of farmland transferhas started to slow down.This study believes that this is mainly because that the implementation itself has also engenxdered unstablefactors and gradually redfuced famers'expectations of farmland rights stability:some farmers may womy about losing farmlandbecause of farmkand adjustment or definition.This study uses the panel data from 784 famers in Jiangsu Province from 2010 to2017 to evaluate the phased impact of farmland rights confimation on famland transfer.The study finds that the anticipation ofpolicy implementation can significantly hinder famers' farmland transfer decision-making,and after the implermentation,landtransfer rate would be raised to its original level.The former means that maintaining a stable contract relationship is conducive tofacilitating famland transfer.The latter may be due to the fact that on the one hand,the implementation of famland rightsconfimation promotes farmland transfer by improving rights stability,,and on the other hand,it also strengthens the "geographicmonopoly of property rights"to suppress continucus famland transfer accompanied with land change.The study suggests thatwhen the second round of farmland contracts is about to expire,the govemment should intensify the publicity and implementationof the contract period for"another 30 years";deepen the reform of land proprty rights system under the guidance of the idea of"three rights division",efiectively solve the problem related to geographical monopoly of property rights in the contiruous farmlandtransfer,and improve the scale economies of agricultural production at theplot level in agricultural production.