认知盲点理论视角下的纽科姆疑难探析

Analysis of Newcomb’s Problems from the Perspective of Epistemic Blindspots Theory

自诺齐克提出纽科姆疑难以来,关于其基本症结及出路一直存在激烈的争论。运用索恩森提出并为孔斯等人所改进的认知盲点理论,不仅可以揭示纽科姆疑难的实质,而且可为消解因果决策理论(CDT)与证据决策理论(EDT)之间的冲突指明新的路径。在纽科姆故事场景下,尽管因涉及选择行为实现方式的思考,使得EDT优于CDT,但这并非意味着EDT可以完全解决该疑难。在将决策行为视为完美干预的情况下,纽科姆问题最佳解决方案是两盒选择,但该选择只是基于决策因果结构的特性,而非CDT。

Since Nozick raised Newcomb’s problem, there has been a fierce debate about its basic crux and its way out. Applying the Epistemic Blindspots Theory proposed by Sorensen and improved by Koons, et al. can not only reveal the essence of Newcomb’s problem, but also point out a new way to resolve the conflict between causal decision theory(CDT) and evidence decision theory(EDT). In the context of the Newcomb story, although EDT is superior to CDT due to considerations involving the realization of choice behavior, this does not mean that EDT can completely solve the problem. When the decision-making behavior is regarded as a perfect intervention, the best solution to Newcomb’s problem is to choose two boxes, but the choice is based only on the characteristics of the decision-making causal structure, not CDT.