经济全球化和国民收入视角下的双边贸易差额核算——基于国际投入产出模型的研究

Measuring Bilateral Trade Balance from the Perspective of Economic Globalization and National Income-A Study Based on the World Input-Output Model

资本全球化是经济全球化的重要表现,外资企业在东道国经济发展和贸易增长中扮演着重要角色,其生产活动依赖于大量的外国要素投入,由此产生要素收入跨国分配现象。现有的贸易总值和贸易增加值核算方法忽视了资本、劳动等要素报酬的属权性质,在此基础上衡量贸易收益和贸易平衡将失之偏颇。为此,本文利用反映要素国别属性的国际投入产出模型构建全球收入链研究框架,提出收入链分解模型,并实证分析中国、美国、欧盟之间的双边贸易平衡。2014年的核算结果显示,国民收入视角下中美贸易顺差为1526亿美元,比贸易总值和增加值视角下的顺差分别缩小35%和18%;中欧贸易顺差为332亿美元,分别缩小63%和48%;欧美贸易顺差也大幅收窄。若以贸易收益占经济总量的比重衡量出口对经济的贡献,国民收入视角下中美、中欧贸易的双边经济贡献之差相比增加值视角也有所减小。本文借助收入链研究补充和修正贸易核算,揭示贸易总值和贸易增加值口径对主要经济体间贸易失衡程度的夸大,突出经济全球化背景下各国相互依存、合作共赢的贸易事实,对于缓和经贸摩擦、对抗"逆全球化"思潮、推进贸易投资自由化具有重要意义。

Capital globalization is an important characteristic of economic globalization. Foreign-invested enterprises play an important role in promoting trade growth and economic development of host countries. As a result, the export production of host countries usually highly depends on the foreign capital, which results in the transnational distribution of factor income. The existing trade accounting statistics based on the total trade volume or trade in value-added can be misleading since they neglect the ownership of payment to foreign factors such as foreign capital and foreign employees. This paper proposes a new decomposition framework for global income chains, based on the world input-occupancy-output table reflecting the ownership of production factors.Empirically, the paper re-calculates the Sino-US, Sino-EU and Euro-US trade balance from the national income perspective. It shows that Sino-US trade surplus in 2014 is S 152.6 billion from the national income perspective,which is 35% and 18% less than that measured in the way of total trade volume and trade in value-added,respectively. Sino-EU trade surplus is S33.2 billion from the national income perspective, which is 63% and 48%less than that measured in the way of the total trade volume and trade in value-added, respectively. There is also a less trade gap for Euro-US trade from the national income perspective compared with the total trade volume perspective. In addition, comparing the contribution of exports measured by the ratio of national income content in exports to GNI with that measured by the ratio of value-added content in exports to GDP, we find that the contribution of both Sino-US and Sino-EU trade to China’s economy narrowed significantly. This paper proposes a framework of global income chain to revise the traditional trade accounting methods. It points out the distortion of bilateral trade balance in previous study and emphasizes the deep interdependence between economies, which has important implications to the reality.